Asteroid 2024 YR4 may hit the moon in 2032, possibly causing a meteor shower that could endanger Earth, according to a new study. (Image credit: Adastra/Getty Images)
A newly discovered space rock, asteroid 2024 YR4, is capturing global attention as scientists warn of a small but significant chance it could slam into the Moon in 2032. If this “city killer” asteroid strikes, it could unleash a shower of meteors toward Earth, posing a threat to satellites and space infrastructure.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: What We Know So Far
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted in December 2024. Measuring about 200 feet (60 meters) across, it’s large enough to level a city if it ever hit Earth directly. Although early predictions suggested a slight chance of an Earth impact in 2032, updated calculations ruled that out. However, new simulations show a 4.3% chance that 2024 YR4 could collide with the Moon on December 22, 2032.
What Happens if 2024 YR4 Hits the Moon?
If this asteroid strikes the Moon, experts estimate the impact would release energy equivalent to a large nuclear explosion. The collision could blast up to 220 million pounds (100 million kilograms) of lunar debris into space. Up to 10% of this material might be pulled towards Earth’s orbit, creating a dazzling meteor shower visible worldwide.
While these meteors would burn up in Earth’s atmosphere, creating a stunning light show, they could also pose serious risks to satellites. Researchers warn that this could increase the chances of satellite damage by 1,000 times, endangering everything from GPS systems to communication networks.
Could This Be Our First Real Test of Planetary Defense?
Scientists are already discussing whether to attempt a deflection mission if the probability of a Moon impact rises further. A mission similar to NASA’s successful DART test in 2022 could redirect 2024 YR4 safely. But as experts point out, any attempt to alter its trajectory must be timed perfectly to avoid accidentally sending the asteroid toward Earth.
What’s Next?
The next critical moment will come in 2028, when 2024 YR4 makes another close approach to Earth. By then, astronomers hope to have much clearer data on its path. Until then, agencies worldwide will be monitoring the asteroid closely.
Key Takeaways
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2024 YR4 is a 200-foot asteroid with a 4.3% chance of hitting the Moon in 2032.
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A lunar impact could trigger a meteor shower and threaten satellites in orbit.
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The impact energy would match a large nuclear explosion, the biggest Moon collision in 5,000 years.
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Deflection missions may be considered if the risk increases.
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